Facing Supply-Side Pressure, Market Feedback Varies Across Steel Grades [SMM Stainless Steel Spot Daily Review]

Zangezur Copper Molybdenum Combine (ZCMC) reported 2025 molybdenum concentrate output of 15,548 wet tonnes (13,389.68 dry tonnes), down 13.7% from 18,014 wet tonnes (15,507.08 dry tonnes) in 2024. Sales fell 15.5% to 15,614 wet tonnes. Meanwhile, dry ore treated rose 1.5% to 22.67 million tonnes, with ZCMC linking the lower molybdenum output to ore characteristics. The company produced no ferromolybdenum or roasted molybdenum concentrate in 2025, compared with 273 tonnes and 547 tonnes, respectively, in 2024. The concentrate figures represent physical product weight, not contained molybdenum.

[SMM Analysis] Futures and spot prices weaken in tandem, raw materials decline, stainless steel cost center shifts down and profits recover This week, stainless steel product and raw material prices pulled back in tandem. Market pessimism dominated the entire industry chain, and steel mills' proactive push for lower purchase prices accelerated the decline in raw material prices, leading to a marginal recovery in industry smelting profits. Based on 304 cold-rolled products, profit pressure at steel mills eased slightly this week. The profit margin calculated using current raw materials was 0.95%, while the margin based on inventory raw materials was -2.21%. Losses on current raw materials narrowed significantly, while inventory raw materials remained under pressure with losses, and the overall profit structure improved somewhat. Nickel-based raw materials continued to drift lower this week. Market pessimism kept building, and cost support weakened further. Steel mills had already completed a round of restocking of raw materials earlier, so this week procurement demand was scarce and spot transactions were generally sluggish. In addition, end-user peak-season demand for stainless steel failed to materialize and product prices continued to weaken, spreading a bearish mood across the market. Meanwhile, port inventories of high-grade NPI stayed high, and the loose supply situation remained unchanged, further pressuring spot prices. As of this Friday, the delivered duty-paid price of Indonesian high-grade NPI with 10-12% nickel content in China fell by 34 yuan per nickel unit week-on-week to 1,051 yuan per nickel unit, and nickel-based costs continued to loosen. This week, stainless steel scrap prices also moved lower in tandem. Its cost substitution advantage expanded, but that was not enough to offset multiple bearish factors. External pressure from the US Fed's rate hikes continued to weigh on futures, and SS futures came under pressure and hit bottom, dragging stainless steel product prices down in tandem. Steel mills remained mired in losses and showed a strong desire to bargain down raw material prices, directly pulling the stainless steel scrap market center lower. Although stainless steel scrap...

[SMM Stainless Steel Scrap Market Weekly Review] Cost Advantages Fail to Offset Macro Headwinds, Stainless Steel Scrap Prices Fall Steadily and Pull Back This week, 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts prices in east China pulled back, with a quotation range of 9,700-9,800 yuan/mt; prices in the Foshan area fell in tandem, with a price range of 9,800-10,100 yuan/mt. Based on production cost analysis from the raw material side, the cost of producing stainless steel entirely from stainless steel scrap is currently about 13,763.18 yuan/mt, while the cost of using only high-grade NPI reaches 14,220.1 yuan/mt. The price spread between the two has widened further, strengthening the economic substitution advantage of stainless steel scrap over high-grade NPI once again. This week, stainless steel scrap prices were generally weak and trending downward. During the week, the US Fed's interest rate hikes continued to weigh on market sentiment externally. SS futures came under pressure, fell, and hit bottom, with bearish sentiment spreading rapidly and transmitting to the spot market, dragging spot prices of stainless steel products down in tandem. The pattern of synchronized declines in futures and spot prices was clear. The overall spot market sentiment remained weak, and steel mills, under pressure from shrinking profits, showed a strong desire to bargain down raw material prices. Stainless steel scrap followed the decline in product futures, with the price center shifting steadily lower. Although the economic advantage of stainless steel scrap over the substitute raw material high-grade NPI widened again this week, strengthening cost support to some extent, macro headwinds and weak fundamentals resonated, making it difficult for cost benefits to translate into market support. Overall, the expanded cost advantage was insufficient to offset multiple bearish pressures. Current market expectations remain generally weak. Affected by sluggish end-use demand and sustained drops in product prices, stainless steel mills' September production schedules...